V4Escrow CEO Elvis Daniel Velea Reveals 2015 Predictions for IP Address Transfer Market
On the eve of his appearance at ARIN 35, CEO Elvis Daniel Velea revealed his major predictions for how the IP address transfer market will continue to develop and mature over the course of 2015.
His forecasting ability has been proven to be especially adept, given the revelation that his 2014 analysis for the number of transfers made was more accurate than virtually every other expert in the field.
For 2015, Mr. Velea believes the following developments will transpire in this marketplace:
First, since the RIPE NCC’s announcement that it has accepted a policy change enabling RIR (‘Regional Internet Registry’) transfers between itself and other regions within the next 6 months, the RIPE region will begin conducting full IPv4 address transfers with the APNIC and ARIN regions. Mr. Velea predicts that this development will trigger a massive influx of address transfer sales originating from U.S. companies within the ARIN region to Middle Eastern buyers inside the RIPE NCC. This assessment bears significant weight given the recent investments made by Iran to rapidly grow its online infrastructure.
Second, this new policy adoption will drive up and stabilize prices of ARIN-based addresses. Within the ARIN region, the average per unit price of a transferred IP address has fallen from a height of $11.25 in 2011 to a range of $6 to $8 in 2014. However, the expected Middle Eastern demand and subsequent investment spree is estimated to adjust the minimum per unit price of ARIN-originated addresses into a range of $10 to $12.
Third, the increased demand will keep these higher per unit prices stable with relatively minor fluctuations. In terms of transfer volume, Mr. Velea predicts that more than four /8s (‘slash eights’) will be transferred globally by the end of 2015.
In short, a flood of Middle Eastern capital will supercharge the IP transfer market as governments are eager to modernize their mobile and Internet infrastructures and find their current IPv4 supplies insufficient at this time.
Furthermore, the RIPE NCC’s new policy will put into play legacy address blocks available within ARIN, especially from US companies that have waited to enter the market thus far. 2015 may be poised to become the most profitable year yet for the IP address transfer market.