V4Escrow’s prediction comes true
In April 2014, our CEO, Elvis Daniel Velea presented at the Menog14 conference in Dubai and estimated that approximately a /8 will be transferred/sold on the IPv4 Market in 2014. The estimation was made based on available portfolio and transfer history of 2013. Now that 2014 is over, it is time to see if the prediction has come true.
Based on the public data, 2014 has seen a continuous increase of IPv4 transfer numbers, both in number of IP addresses and in number of actual IPv4 transfers. In the ARIN region there were 4,03M IP addresses transferred. About half (43) of the total number (89) of transfers have been made to the APNIC members.
In the APNIC region there were 3.85M IP addresses transferred in 163 transfers, 1.1M out of these 3.85M were transferred from ARIN members. In the RIPE NCC region there were 9.63M IP addresses transferred in 551 transfers. Additionally, since 29 November 2014 there were 14 PI transfers totaling 13312 IP addresses.
In total, in 2014 the IPv4 Market has seen 97.96% of a /8 transferred. We can conclude that Elvis’ prediction has come true and await to see his prediction at Menog15 in Dubai. The numbers above do not include the transfers of Legacy resources in any of the regions. As Legacy Transfers are not visible anywhere, there is no method to calculate how many of these addresses have actually been transferred. We estimate that 1-4 million Legacy IP addresses have been transferred.
We have previously speculated that this market will have 5-10 year maximum growth potential, with an expected downturn in transfers to slowly begin by 2016. Variables affecting this timespan will include how many large companies will enter the market as well as how many other large Legacy resource holders will sell off their addresses.
Additional variables such as long-term IPv6 implementation and IPv4 rental costs for transferred blocks. In short though, the IPv4 Market continues to move at a steady, fairly predictable rate.
However both IP address brokers and interested parties should begin formulating new strategies regarding their IP address acquisition and IPv6 implementation, as the market’s overall viability will begin to degrade within a relatively short timeframe.